MGU Library and Humanities Series — Research Methods and Information Literacy
Part V: Evidence, Credibility, and Misinformation
Claims · Disciplines · Statistics · Documents · Testimony · Expertise
Chapter 25 of 48
MGU Library and Humanities Series  ·  Research Methods and Information Literacy  ·  Library Textbook Edition

Chapter 25:
What Counts
as Evidence

Facts, examples, statistics, experiments, documents, testimony, and expert opinion — learning to recognize evidence, match it to the question being asked, and earn trust in information rather than merely finding it

■ Opens Part V: Evidence, Credibility, and Misinformation ■

■ 8 Sections  •  Chapter 1 of Part V (Chapters 25–32) ■

Foundation chapter for credibility, bias, statistics, visual evidence, algorithms, and fact-checking

Research Skill Focus and Why This Matters

This chapter teaches students how to identify, understand, and evaluate different types of evidence. Students will learn that evidence is not a single thing — it is a category that includes facts, examples, statistics, experiments, observations, documents, testimony, expert opinion, visual materials, artifacts, and data sets. They will learn that different research fields rely on different kinds of evidence, and that the strength of any evidence depends on how well it fits the research question it is meant to answer.

By the end of this chapter, students should be able to recognize evidence in a source, name the type of evidence being offered, assess whether that evidence fits the claim being made, and explain why evidence that is strong in one context may be weak or irrelevant in another.

Why This Matters

Every research claim rests on evidence. Without evidence, a claim is an opinion, a guess, or an assertion. Evidence is what turns a private belief into a public case — what allows a researcher to say not just "I think this is true" but "here is why others should think so as well."

This matters for research because choosing the right type of evidence for a claim is part of building a credible argument. It matters for daily life because misinformation almost always involves evidence problems — claims dressed up to look like evidence. Understanding that "many people say" is not evidence, that one dramatic story is not proof of a trend, and that correlation does not establish cause are practical defenses against manipulation, not academic abstractions.

Part V of this textbook is one of the most important parts of the book, and this chapter is its foundation. Without a clear understanding of what evidence is and how it works, the chapters that follow — on credibility, bias, misinformation, statistics, visual media, algorithms, and verification — cannot be fully understood.

8Sections
8Objectives
7Evidence Types
5MGU Models Applied

Learning Objectives

  1. 1Define evidence and explain its relationship to claims, and identify support that is commonly mistaken for genuine evidence.
  2. 2Compare how the natural sciences, social sciences, humanities, and applied fields define, collect, and use evidence differently.
  3. 3Distinguish facts from examples and explain the evidential limits of each, including the problem of cherry-picking.
  4. 4Read statistical evidence critically, including sample size, what is actually measured, correlation versus causation, and uncertainty.
  5. 5Evaluate experimental and observational evidence, including randomized controlled trials and the problem of confounding.
  6. 6Evaluate documentary and testimonial evidence for authenticity, context, completeness, and the limits of memory.
  7. 7Assess expert opinion for genuine domain expertise, expert consensus, and undisclosed conflicts of interest.
  8. 8Match evidence types to research question types and build a convergent evidence case from multiple sources and methods.

Sections at a Glance

Sections 25.1 – 25.4
What Evidence Is and the Basic Building Blocks
Claims · Disciplinary Standards · Facts and Examples · Statistics and Data

Evidence and Claims

Every piece of research writing, every academic argument, every journalistic report, and every persuasive message involves at least two things: a claim and evidence.

A claim is a statement that something is true, that something happened, that one thing caused another, that a trend exists, or that a policy works. Claims can be descriptive, analytical, interpretive, or argumentative. Evidence is the information offered to support a claim. It shows that the claim is grounded in something beyond the claimant's opinion or desire, and gives readers a basis for evaluating whether the claim is worth accepting.

Research is the work of connecting evidence to claims responsibly — finding evidence that genuinely supports the claim, representing it accurately, acknowledging its limits, and being honest about what remains unknown.

Not All Support Is Evidence

Beginning researchers often treat support as evidence when it is not. Watch for these imposters:

  • Repetition. Saying a claim more forcefully or more often does not make it evidence — one assertion repeated ten times is still one assertion.
  • Popularity. Many people believing something does not make it true.
  • Emotional appeals. A moving story can illustrate a point, but emotion is not itself evidence that a pattern is real.
  • Authority by assertion. An impressive title is not the same as evidence that a claim is true.
  • Analogy. "This is like X" can aid understanding, but it does not prove shared causes, effects, or solutions.

The evidence-claim match. Even genuine evidence can be misused if it does not actually support the claim attached to it. A study showing that students who eat breakfast perform better on standardized tests is real evidence — but it does not, by itself, prove that a school's free breakfast program caused the improvement. Other factors may explain the pattern. The evidence is genuine; the claim is too strong for what the evidence shows.

Questions to Ask

Does this evidence actually address the claim being made? Is it the right type of evidence for this kind of claim? Is it strong enough to support the confidence of the claim? What alternative explanations does it leave open? What evidence would be needed to close those alternatives?

Evidence Across Disciplines

Different academic fields have developed different standards for what counts as good evidence, how it should be collected, and how it should be interpreted. These differences are not arbitrary — they reflect what kinds of questions each discipline asks and what methods are most reliable for producing trustworthy answers.

Discipline GroupCharacteristic EvidenceWhat Makes It Reliable
Natural SciencesControlled experiments; observational data; quantitative measurementReplication by independent researchers; peer review; accumulation across multiple studies
Social SciencesSurveys; experiments and RCTs; ethnographic and observational research; administrative dataRepresentative sampling; statistical controls; transparency about methodological limits
HumanitiesPrimary documents; textual analysis; historical and archival records; comparative analysisGrounding in the text or record; historical informedness; responsiveness to alternative readings
Applied / Professional FieldsCombinations of clinical, legal, economic, and qualitative evidenceReal-world reliability; transparency about stakes and limitations

In the natural sciences, a single study rarely settles a question. Findings accumulate through multiple independent studies using varied methods. In the social sciences, full experimental control over human populations is often impossible, so researchers rely on surveys, quasi-experiments, and statistical controls while acknowledging the limits those methods carry. In the humanities, evidence is typically interpreted rather than measured — two scholars reading the same document may reach different but both legitimate conclusions, as long as their readings are grounded in the text and responsive to alternative interpretations. In applied fields such as medicine, law, and public policy, evidence standards from multiple disciplines combine, and the consequences of acting on weak evidence can be serious.

Knowing which discipline you are working in tells you what kind of evidence to look for, what methodological language to expect, how to judge whether evidence fits the claims made, and how to present evidence in your own writing.

Facts and Examples

A fact is a specific, verifiable piece of information confirmed through reliable sources — dates, measurements, documented occurrences, counts. Facts anchor claims in verifiable reality, but they require context to be meaningful. "The United States incarcerates more people per capita than any other country" is a fact, but understanding what it means requires knowing how incarceration is measured and counted, and what policy factors contributed to the figure. Facts without context can be accurate and still mislead.

An example is a specific instance used to illustrate a claim. Examples make abstract claims concrete, but a single example cannot establish a pattern, a typical case, or a cause. The most common misuse of examples is cherry-picking — selecting only examples that support a desired conclusion while ignoring those that complicate it.

Illustrative vs. Representative
Two different claims that require different support
  • IllustrativeAn example used to show what a phenomenon looks like — it makes a concept tangible without claiming to be typical.
  • RepresentativeAn example selected because it typifies a broader pattern — this stronger claim requires statistical evidence showing the example really is typical.
Principle: Be honest about which claim your example is making.

Statistics and Data

Statistics summarize patterns across large numbers of cases, making them powerful evidence — but numbers create an impression of precision and objectivity that can mislead when context, collection methods, or limits are hidden.

ConceptWhy It Matters
Sample size & sampling methodA statistic from a tiny or unrepresentative sample cannot reliably describe a larger population.
What is actually measured"Unemployment" may exclude people who stopped looking for work; labels are not always accurate descriptions of the measure.
Correlation vs. causationTwo variables moving together does not mean one caused the other; a third variable may explain both.
Percentages vs. absolute numbersA "50 percent increase" may mean a change from 2 cases to 3 — always check both figures.
Uncertainty / margin of errorA reputable statistic reports a range, not a single precise truth.
Forward Reference

Chapter 29 covers misleading charts, axes, and cherry-picked data in much greater depth. Return to this section's concepts whenever you encounter numerical evidence in your sources.

Sections 25.5 – 25.8
Methods, Records, Expertise, and Matching Evidence to Questions
Experiments · Documents and Testimony · Expert Opinion · Evidence-Question Fit

Experiments and Observations

An experiment manipulates one or more variables under controlled conditions to observe the effect on another variable, isolating cause-and-effect relationships. The randomized controlled trial (RCT) — in which participants are randomly assigned to a treatment or control group — is considered the gold standard for causal evidence in medicine, public health, and social policy, because random assignment makes the two groups comparable on both measured and unmeasured characteristics.

Not everything can be studied experimentally — it would be unethical to randomly assign children to poverty, for instance. For these questions, researchers turn to observational research: cohort studies, case-control studies, cross-sectional surveys, ethnographic observation, and systematic reviews that synthesize multiple studies.

The Challenge of Confounding

Because observational studies do not control who is exposed to what, a third, unmeasured variable can explain an apparent relationship. Researchers use statistical controls, but can only control for factors they thought to measure.

When you encounter experimental or observational evidence, ask: What was manipulated or measured? Is the sample representative of the population the conclusion is about? How large was it? What alternative explanations did the researchers consider? Have the findings been replicated?

Documents and Testimony

A document is any record — official, institutional, personal, published, legal, or diplomatic — created at or near the time of the events it describes. Documentary evidence is powerful because it is close to the event and reveals what the writer thought, knew, and felt at the time.

Evaluating a DocumentKey Question
AuthenticityIs this document genuine, or has it been forged, altered, or misattributed?
ContextWhen and by whom was it created, for what purpose and audience?
CompletenessIs this the full record, or has it been selectively excerpted?
Bias and perspectiveWhat viewpoint or interest shaped this document, and how should that shape your reading?

Testimony — a person's account of what they experienced, witnessed, did, or believed — appears in oral history, journalism, legal proceedings, and qualitative research. It can reveal subjective experience and reasoning that no document records, but human memory is fallible: people misremember, reinterpret the past, and are influenced by what they have heard from others. Uncorroborated single eyewitness accounts are among the weakest forms of evidence for factual claims, even from sincere people. Testimony is strongest when corroborated by other testimony and by documentary evidence.

Expert Opinion

Expert opinion is legitimate evidence when a question requires specialized knowledge, when an expert synthesizes a large body of research a non-expert could not practically evaluate alone, and when the question is one on which experts with relevant credentials broadly agree. Expert consensus — the overwhelming agreement of relevant experts — represents collective evaluation of evidence by those best positioned to assess it, and should not be treated as equivalent to a single contrarian voice.

When "Expert Opinion" Is Not Good Evidence
  • The wrong kind of expert — expertise is domain-bounded; a cardiologist is not a climate scientist.
  • Manufactured expertise — interested parties sometimes fund organizations or recruit dissenters to manufacture the appearance of controversy.
  • Expert opinion on value questions — experts can tell you what is true; they cannot, by their expertise alone, tell you what policy society should choose.
  • Outdated opinion — fields change; always check whether conclusions reflect current knowledge.

When evaluating expert opinion, ask: Is this person a genuine expert in the relevant domain? Are they operating within that domain? Does their view represent the field or an outlier position? Is their conclusion supported by evidence they cite? Have conflicts of interest been disclosed?

Matching Evidence to the Question

The most important question about any evidence is not just whether it is accurate, but whether it fits the question being asked.

Question TypeExampleEvidence It Calls For
DescriptiveHow many people lack clean drinking water?Statistical data — surveys, administrative records, measurement studies
HistoricalWhat caused the 1918 pandemic's severity?Archival documents, primary sources, historical scholarship
CausalDoes minimum wage reduce employment?Experiments, controlled observational studies, natural experiments
InterpretiveWhat does Beloved represent about slavery's psychological effects?Close textual analysis informed by historical context and theory
EvaluativeIs the immigration system equitable?Outcome data, legal analysis, explicit values and standards
PredictiveWhat will temperatures be in 2100?Scientific modeling with explicit uncertainty ranges
Common Mismatches
  • Using anecdotes to answer questions about frequency.
  • Using correlations to answer causal questions.
  • Using opinion surveys to answer factual questions.
  • Using expert opinion to resolve value disputes.
  • Using outdated evidence for current questions.
Building an Evidence Case

Strong research arguments rarely depend on a single type of evidence. They combine experimental data, observational findings, mechanism explanations, testimony, and economic or contextual data so that multiple independent lines of evidence converge on the same conclusion. No single piece of evidence settles a question — convergence across types and methods is what builds a strong case.

Applied Skills
Search Practice, Source Check, and Research Notebook
Putting Evidence Evaluation to Work

Identifying and Comparing Evidence in Real Sources

Activity 25AIdentifying Evidence Types in Sources

Find one source on a research topic of your choice using the MGU Library catalog, a library database, or a reputable news source. Read it carefully, then record:

  1. The main claim the source makes.
  2. For each piece of evidence offered: What type is it (fact, example, statistic, experimental data, observational data, document, testimony, expert opinion)? How strong is it for this claim? What alternative explanations does it leave open? Is the evidence type well-matched to the claim?
  3. Overall: Does the evidence support the claim adequately? What additional evidence would strengthen the argument?
Activity 25BEvidence Across Disciplines

Choose one topic — the health effects of urban green space, the causes of declining voter turnout, the representation of race in American film, or the relationship between poverty and academic achievement. Search for two sources: one from a social science or natural science database, and one from a humanities source or journalism outlet.

  1. What field does each source come from, and what type of evidence does it use?
  2. What methods were used to collect or interpret the evidence?
  3. What are the limits of this evidence type for this topic?
  4. Compare the two sources: what does each reveal that the other cannot?

Evaluating the Evidence in an Article

Practice Source Evaluation
"Social Media Use and Adolescent Depression: A Growing Crisis"

Source type: News feature article in a general-interest online magazine.

Summary of claims: The article argues heavy social media use is causing a mental health crisis among teenagers, particularly girls. It cites a statistic that depression diagnoses among girls aged 12–17 increased significantly between 2010 and 2020. It quotes one clinical psychologist who says social media is "definitely" harming young people's mental health. It includes accounts from three teenage girls who describe feeling worse about themselves after using Instagram, and notes that rising depression rates coincide with the rise of smartphone adoption among teenagers.

  • Q1List the types of evidence used. Is each type appropriate for the claim being made?
  • Q2The article claims social media causes depression. What evidence would a causal claim require? What alternative explanations does the article's evidence leave open?
  • Q3Does the psychologist's "definitely" constitute strong expert opinion? What would you want to know before accepting it?
  • Q4What do the three girls' stories show, and what do they not show?
  • Q5Depression rates and smartphone adoption rose together. Name at least two alternative explanations for this correlation.
  • Q6What missing evidence — experimental studies, longitudinal data, cross-country comparison, data on boys — would strengthen or complicate the claim?
  • Q7Apply the MGU Source Evaluation Model — Relevance, Authority, Evidence, Accuracy, Purpose, Currency, Context — to this source.

Model Entry: Tracking Evidence in a Source

Use the MGU Research Note Model — Source, Summary, Key evidence, Quotation, Paraphrase, Usefulness, Limits, Citation information — every time you record evidence from a source. Here is a model entry.

DateNovember 5
QuestionDoes expanding access to early childhood education reduce long-term poverty rates?
SourcePerry Preschool Project longitudinal study summaries and scholarly analyses.
SummaryBeginning in the early 1960s, researchers randomly assigned disadvantaged children in Ypsilanti, Michigan to a high-quality preschool program or a control group, then followed both for decades.
Key evidenceExperimental — randomized controlled design with long-term follow-up. Participants who attended preschool showed higher graduation rates, higher earnings, lower arrest rates, and better health outcomes, with effects persisting into middle age.
ParaphraseThe Perry Preschool Project is a gold-standard study because random assignment, rather than self-selection, makes causal interpretation more defensible than most research in this area.
UsefulnessVery high — this is precisely the causal evidence the question requires, with valuable long-term follow-up.
LimitsSingle city, specific historical context; small sample (under 60 per group); later replications show varying effect sizes.
Next stepsSearch for the Chicago Child-Parent Centers and Abecedarian Project to check consistency across programs and populations.
Guarding Against Misuse
Misinformation Alert, Citation Check, and the MGU Library
Evidence Imposters · Recording Evidence Honestly · Where to Find Each Type

When "Evidence" Is Not Evidence

Misinformation rarely admits it has no basis — it dresses up weak or fabricated support as evidence. Recognize these common evidence imposters:

  • The dramatic anecdote presented as proof of a pattern. A single story illustrates a possibility; it does not establish a frequency.
  • The statistic without a source. Numbers require attribution. Treat unsourced statistics as unverified.
  • The correlation presented as causation. Always ask what alternative explanation the correlation leaves open.
  • The manufactured expert. Verify credentials, affiliation, and funding, and compare against broader expert consensus.
  • The outdated study. Check whether the evidence reflects current scholarly or scientific understanding.
  • The emotional appeal presented as evidence. Feeling strongly that something is true does not make it true.
Apply the MGU Misinformation Check

Who made this claim? What is the specific claim? What evidence is offered? What is missing that would be needed to support it? Can another reliable source confirm it? Is the emotional reaction stronger than the evidence? Has the source, image, statistic, or story been altered, misrepresented, or taken out of context?

Recording Evidence Types Honestly

When introducing evidence in your own writing, signal its type and source clearly so readers can evaluate it for themselves.

Evidence TypeModel Phrasing
Statistical"According to a 2022 survey of 4,200 adults conducted by [organization], approximately 37 percent of respondents reported..."
Experimental"A randomized controlled trial published in [journal] found that participants who received the intervention showed..."
Documentary"A 1963 memorandum in the National Archives reveals that senior officials were aware of..."
Testimonial"In an oral history interview conducted in 2018, a survivor of the disaster recalled..."
Expert opinion"Dr. [Name], a virologist at [Institution], argues that..."
Common Citation Errors When Recording Evidence

Failing to note the date of data collection; paraphrasing expert opinion without flagging it as opinion; treating a news summary of a study as equivalent to the study itself; citing a study without its sample size, population, or methodology.

Finding Different Types of Evidence Through MGU Library Resources

Matching Evidence Types to Library Resources

For statistical and data evidence

  • MGU Library Reference section statistical databases and government data portals
  • Government sources linked through MGU Library subject guides

For experimental and observational evidence

  • Academic databases covering medicine, public health, and social and natural science (see Chapter 19)
  • MGU Library subject guides for your discipline

For documentary evidence

  • MGU Library catalog primary source and special collections
  • Digital collections such as the Library of Congress, the National Archives, and the Digital Public Library of America (see Chapter 18)

For expert opinion and background

  • Peer-reviewed academic journals through MGU Library database access
  • MGU Encyclopedia and Reference sections for handbooks and review articles

When you are unsure where to look

  • The MGU Library Reference Department offers research consultations
  • MGU Library Tutorials cover database searching and source evaluation in practice

Chapter Summary, Review, and Research Checklist

Chapter Summary

Key Terms

claim
A statement asserted to be true that the writer is prepared to support with evidence.
evidence
Information offered to support a claim, giving readers a basis for evaluating whether to accept it.
cherry-picking
Selecting only examples or data that support a desired conclusion while ignoring those that complicate it.
randomized controlled trial
An experiment in which participants are randomly assigned to treatment or control groups to strengthen causal inference.
confounding
A situation in which an unmeasured third variable explains an apparent relationship between two studied variables.
correlation
A statistical association between two variables that does not, by itself, establish that one causes the other.
expert consensus
Overwhelming agreement among relevant experts, reflecting collective evaluation of the evidence.
documentary evidence
Records created at or near the time of the events they describe, evaluated for authenticity, context, and completeness.

Review Questions

  1. What is the difference between a claim and evidence? Give an example of a claim and identify what type of evidence would be needed to support it.
  2. Name four types of support commonly mistaken for evidence. For each, explain why it falls short.
  3. How does evidence differ across academic disciplines? Choose two disciplines and describe the evidence types each relies on and why they are appropriate.
  4. What is the difference between an illustrative example and a representative example? Why does this distinction matter?
  5. A researcher finds that cities with more coffee shops have higher average incomes and concludes that coffee shops raise income. Evaluate this reasoning, including what type of evidence would be needed to support the causal claim and what alternative explanations remain.
  6. What is cherry-picking, and why does it undermine the evidential value of examples?
  7. What is a randomized controlled trial, and why is it considered strong evidence for causal claims? What types of questions cannot be studied this way?
  8. What questions should you ask when evaluating documentary evidence?
  9. What is the difference between expert consensus and a single expert's opinion, and why does the distinction matter?
  10. What does it mean for evidence to "match" a research question? Give an example of a mismatch and a better-fitting evidence type.
  11. What is the principle of converging evidence, and why is an argument built from multiple evidence types stronger than one built from a single type?
  12. Choose one evidence imposter from the Misinformation Alert section. Construct a realistic example of it being used to support a claim and explain why it does not constitute genuine evidence.

Research Checklist

Chapter 25 — Research Checklist
Use this every time you evaluate evidence in a source or build evidence for your own argument.
Identifying Evidence
  • I have identified the main claim being made in this source.
  • I have identified each piece of evidence and named its type.
Evaluating the Evidence
  • I have considered whether the evidence type fits the claim being made.
  • I have assessed reliability, representativeness, recency, and sufficiency.
  • I have identified alternative explanations the evidence leaves open.
  • I have checked for correlation presented as causation.
  • I have verified that expert opinion comes from a genuine, undisclosed-conflict-free expert in the relevant domain.
Building My Own Evidence Case
  • I have identified what type of evidence my research question calls for.
  • I have looked for converging evidence from multiple types of sources.
  • I have used the MGU Research Note Model to record evidence accurately.
Avoiding Misinformation
  • I have applied the MGU Misinformation Check to any surprising or emotionally compelling claim.
  • I have not mistaken correlation for causation, anecdote for pattern, or popularity for truth.
Looking Ahead
Chapter 26: Relevance, Credibility, Accuracy, and Authority

Chapter 25 established what evidence is and how it varies across disciplines, types, and questions. Chapter 26 builds on this foundation by introducing the core standards for evaluating sources as a whole — relevance, credibility, accuracy, authority, evidence quality, and source fit — culminating in the MGU Source Evaluation Model. Where this chapter asked "what kind of evidence is this?", Chapter 26 asks "should I trust this source at all?"